Modeling and forecasting rainfall pattern in Kano state, North-West of Nigeria

Abstract

This research paper examined rainfall series over time, from 1992 to 2012, in Kano state. The data were analyzed using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) approach. The method of estimation and diagnostic analysis revealed that the SARIMA (0,0,0)(1,1,1)₁₂ adequately fits the historical series. Further comparison on the forecasting accuracy of the model is performed by holding out 2012 values. The forecast results provide very closer values with the original pattern of the actual Kano rainfall data.

Keywords: Monthly Rainfall, SARIMA, Seasonal Differencing, HEGY test, Forecasting.