Intervention analysis of Nigeria’s foreign exchange rate

Abstract

This paper investigated the impact of Nigeria’s foreign exchange rate using classical multiple regression model under the assumptions of ordinary least squares method (OLS) and intervention model using lag operator L. Monthly time series data spanning 1980:1 to 2014:12 were used and a number of statistical tools are employed to verify this hypothesis. A useful approach is to test the significant change between the long-run mean effect before and after each intervention. Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Schwarz’s Bayesian criterion (SBC or BIC) and Coefficient of Determination (R²) were used to determine the model that best describe Nigeria’s foreign exchange rate.

Keywords: Intervention Analysis, Exchange Rate