Olympic medals: Success predictions for Río-2016

Abstract

Medals are the maximum exponent of successful sporting events. One of the most relevant of these sporting events is the Olympic Games, which gathers major athletes and teams from across the world every four years. Predicting the distribution of the medals at these Games is nothing new. As a matter of fact, this practice gained  considerable popularity just before the latest edition of the London-2012 Games. After the games were over, this study took a look at the results and the predictions made at the time to determine which of these predictions had been the most accurate. This  information was then used to carry out an estimation exercise to predict the medal  distribution for the upcoming edition of the Games in Rio-2016. To guarantee a greater predictive success, several predictions were carried out in ranges for the main Olympic delegations. The final estimation provides a ranking of medals per country. This  classification is consistent with former rankings, especially those of leading countries.

Key words: Olympic Medals; Olympic success; Predictions; Rio-2016.