Accident Prediction Models for Akure – Ondo Carriageway, Ondo State Southwest Nigeria; Using Multiple Linear Regressions

Abstract

Accident data on the 52km Akure-Ondo Carriageway and Spot Speed data were collected and analyzed. The analysis of the Spot Speed gives an average of 51.5km/hr and 110.75km/hr for the 15th and 85th percentile speed respectively, the 85th percentile speed is higher than the posted speed limit of 60km/hr which indicate that the vehicle travelling at this speed are susceptible to accident. The analysis for the study area also shows that 759 peopled were involved in the accidents, 108 persons were killed and about 348 persons were injured between 2002-2007, 38% of the accident were fatal accident and 62% non-fatal accident, However, the regression analysis carried out on the accident data with number of accident as the dependent variables and number of people killed in the accident(X1), number of people injure(X2), number of people involved in the accident(X3) as independent variables; gives a coefficient of correlation “R” value of 70.70% and coefficient of determination “R2”of 49.70% respectively. Factors such as driver’s behavior, poorly maintained vehicles, non adherence to traffic rules, poorly maintained road and verges, and over-speeding are causatives factors to road accident. However, road safety plans and road safety audit that are effective strategies that could be used by the authorities concerned for mitigation of road accident are recommended..

Keywords: Road Accident, Carriageway, Spot Speed, Road Safety Plans and Road Safety Audit