Interpreting the Transformation of the City Centres of South Africa Through System Dynamics: How Different Are They From Other African Cities?

  • T Simelane


The need for quantitative interpretation of urban dynamics poses a challenge,
given the idiosyncratic complexities that distinguish various stages of city
transformation. In this study, statistical methods provide the standard paradigm for identifying general factors leading to urban transformation and the subsequent loss of attractiveness by a city, often by modelling dichotomous indicators of observed factors or characteristics as logistic response functions of measurable macrostructural variables. The hypothesis
that South Africa’s major cities are transforming and are thus on the verge of
losing their attractiveness is investigated.