A pandemic triad: HIV, COVID-19 and debt in low- and middle-income countries

Abstract

This article assesses the impact of the HIV and COVID-19 pandemics and debt dynamics on health, HIV and pandemic preparedness and response-related financing in developing countries. Using a novel dataset, we did a cross-national systematic analysis of all data sources available for government expenditures on health, HIV, COVID-19 and debt servicing in selected developing countries. We found an inadequate multilateral response with the ensuing gaps allowing both pandemics to thrive. The G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative and the Common Framework only covered countries with a third of the global population of people living with HIV. Rising and unsustainable debt levels are limiting the capacity of governments to protect the health of their populations. Government spending is already falling in response to high debt payments. Specifically, debt servicing is crowding out lifesaving investments. In 2020, for every USD 5 available, USD 4 was spent on debt servicing. Only USD 1 was invested in health. This is a binding constraint on countries’ efforts to control COVID-19. Even with a gargantuan effort to increase health expenditure, the outlook for health financing remains negative. Fiscal consolidation, with a heavy emphasis on expenditure cuts, is expected to take place across 139 countries in the coming years. These findings suggest that fiscal policymakers should be concerned about the crowding-out and constraining effects of public debt. To this end, pragmatic recommendations are made to treat and cancel debt as a critical policy lever to accelerate the end of the HIV and COVID-19 pandemics in developing countries as a key condition to addressing the growing inequalities and to ensure debt can be a benefit, not a burden.