Effects of Population Dynamics on Economic Growth Among the World Most Populous Countries

Abstract

High population growth is a growing concern throughout the world and a challenge to any country’s economy. This study assessed the effects of population growth rate on economic growth among four most populous countries of the world namely China, India, United States of America and Nigeria. Time series data from the World Development Indicators spanning from 1991- 2020 were used. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used for the analysis and results revealed that in the long-run total population growth was negatively related with economic growth in all the four countries. However, in Nigeria, change in working age population, sectoral employment (proxy for human resource utilization) and trade openness had significant positive effects on economic growth both in the long-run and short-run. In India, China and the United States, change in working age share had no effect on economic growth in the long-run but in China and India, there is evidence of significant positive effects in the short-run. Furthermore, in China and the U.S, the initial share of working age in the population had positive long run effects on economic growth. The study concludes that improvement in the working age share in each of the selected countries will boost economic growth but an increase in the overall population will have detrimental effects on the growth of the economy. Policies necessary to increase the share of working age in the population is therefore recommended as a way to improve economic growth in these countries.