African Journal of Economic Review

Women’s Economic Empowerment in Tanzania: A Comparative Analysis of Government and Non-Government Programmes

Aika Aku — 2026-07-22

Women’s economic empowerment is a central focus of development initiatives in Tanzania, yet its measurement across economic empowerment programmes remains limited. This study examines the levels and determinants of women’s economic empowerment from 385 small-scale livestock fattening, assessed using the Project-Level Women Empowerment in Agricultural Index and fractional logit regression. Results show that women in non-government programmes demonstrate higher level of economic empowerment (85.5%) than those in government programme (59.2%). The study identifies married women, education, training, alternative loan and sociocultural norms as factors influencing economic empowerment levels. While economic empowerment programmes mitigate women’s constraints, their effectiveness diminishes when training misaligns with women practical needs and in communities with low supportive sociocultural norms. To enhance empowerment, programmes should tailor training content to women needs, adopt community-based awareness campaigns to enhance spousal engagement and strengthen service delivery systems. These measures can foster inclusivity and improvement in women’s economic empowerment.

The Asymmetric Pass-Through Effects of Interest Rate and Interest Rate Liberalisation in Nigeria

Abdulrahman Abdullahi Nadani — 2026-07-22

This study investigates the symmetric and asymmetric effects of interest rate to lending rate in Nigeria prior to and after interest rate liberalisation of 1986 using annual data from 1970 to 2024. By employing a linear ARDL, the study indicates a long-term association and an inadequate pass-through in both the short-term and long-term in Nigeria. The interaction variable between interest policy rate and its liberalisation dummy indicates a receptiveness of lending rate to fluctuations in interest rate. However, the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) indicate that lending rate reacts more vigorously and quickly to positive interest rate (tightening) than to a negative interest rate (easing), suggesting downward rigidity in lending rate movements. Whilst the amount of the effect increases in the post liberalisation, this asymmetry remains apparent in both pre and post liberalisation periods.

Forecasting Nigeria's Real Gross Domestic Product Using the ARIMA Model: Out-of-Sample Evaluation and Projections to 2030

Oyetola Bukunmi Oyelakun — 2026-07-24

This study examines the predictive performance of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model in forecasting Nigeria's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2025 to 2030. Annual real GDP data (1981–2019) from the Central Bank of Nigeria were analyzed using the Box–Jenkins methodology. This paper fills a major scholarly gap by executing out-of-sample validation using observed post-estimation provisional holdout data (2020–2024) to verify baseline parameters before projecting and establishing a transparent parsimonious macroeconomic benchmark. The series was non-stationary at level but became stationary after first differencing, which led to selecting ARIMA (1,1,1) based on minimized information criteria. Real GDP is projected to increase from ₦82,334.34 billion in 2025 to ₦93,506.79 billion in 2030, offering a reliable framework to support evidence-based budgeting, macroeconomic planning, and policy formulation.

Migration, Remittances and Real Exchange Rate in Nigeria: A Two-fold Analysis

Abubakar Lawan Ngoma — 2026-08-03

Despite huge empirical research examining the impact of international migration on real exchange rates, few studies have isolated and analysed the effects of emigration and remittances. In view of this, we examine how these factors contribute to long-run changes of real exchange rate in migrants’ country of origin. Using time-series data from 1990-2023 of alternate measures of real exchange rates from Nigeria and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) estimation technique, our results indicate that a percentage point increase in emigration and remittances appreciate the long-run real exchange rate in Nigeria by 2.4% and 0.5% respectively. This suggest that increase in both emigration and remittances appreciate the real exchange rate in the long run, which erodes export competitiveness of the country. A further analysis of sectoral impacts of emigration and remittances in the long run show that both factors lead to inefficient reallocation of resources against growth of agricultural sector.

Export Diversification and Human Development in WAEMU Countries

Djarafou T. Ango — 2026-07-30

Using data from the eight member states of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) over the period 2005–2023, this study investigates the impact of export diversification on human development. Preliminary econometric diagnostics confirm the presence of cross-sectional dependence, serial correlation, and heteroskedasticity in the dataset. Accordingly, we employ Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE), Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS), and Driscoll and Kraay estimation techniques. The baseline results indicate that overall export diversification, proxied by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, the relative Theil index, and the Theil entropy index, has a positive and statistically significant impact on human development. In addition, robustness checks consistently confirm the main findings and further reveal that agricultural sector-based export diversification exerts a positive effect on human development outcomes. The paper concludes with policy recommendations.