Predicting Students' Performance in Senior Secondary Certificate Examinations from Performance in Junior Secondary Certificate Examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria

In this article, the predictive strength of the Junior Secondary Certificate (JSC) examinations in predicting the performance of students in the Senior Secondary Certificate (SSC) examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria was examined. The study explored a correlation design. The study population comprised all the 257 secondary schools in the State. Out of this population, a sample of 206 schools was selected through the stratified random sampling technique. Data were collected through an inventory and analysed with the use of z-test, correlation analysis and multiple regression. The findings revealed that the JSC examinations were a good predictor of performance at SSC examination. Since the performance level was generally low in both examinations, it was recommended that the State government should intensify more efforts in ensuring better teaching and learning strategies in schools through effective supervision and monitoring of schools. INTRODUCTION on the other hand, are examinations that are conducted by


INTRODUCTION
on the other hand, are examinations that are conducted by Examinations in Nigerian schools dated back to the such as the Senior Secondary Certificate (SSC) advent of formal education.The 1887 Education examinations and the Junior Secondary Certificate (JSC) Ordinance made provision for public examinations in are regarded as external examinations.This is in the sense schools [1].Thus, the National Policy of Education [2] that the examining boards conducting these examinations stipulated that all secondary schools should gear their did not themselves organize instructional courses nor programmes to meet the requirements of examinations prepare students for the examinations.They are being conducted for the Senior School Certificate.The examinations that are designed and organised under pattern of grading candidates' scores in the examinations specific terms and conditions and are based on norms that was such that the distinction grades were represented by were regarded as standards [5].They are designed to A1 to B3.The credit grades were represented by C4 to C6. evaluate performance at the end of a course of study or The ordinary pass grades were represented by D7 and E8 programme.However, despite the unique position of while the failure grade was represented by F9 [3].It needs examinations in the educational system, there have been to be mentioned however, that the distinction and credit conflicting reports on the predictive strength of the JSC grades are the only requisite qualifications for admissions examinations at predicting performance in the SSC into universities in Nigeria and candidates must have at examinations [6,7].least credit in five subjects including English Language in order to qualify for admission [4].
Literature review: The term 'academic performance' has Thus, examinations occupy a unique position as a been described as the scholastic standing of a student at measure of quality within the educational system of Ondo a given moment.It refers to how an individual is able to State, Nigeria.They are either internal or public.Internal demonstrate his or her intellectual abilities.This examinations are the examinations that are set by teachers scholastic standing could be explained as the grades within a school system.These could be in the form of obtained in a course or groups of courses taken [8 9].tests and end of term examinations.Public examinations Thus, in predicting academic performance [8] emphasized recognised examining bodies.As such, the examinations the use of grades in examinations and reported that Research questions grades could serve as prediction measures and as criterion measures.They argued that a prediction of a What is the level of performance of students in the future examination result could be made with reasonable Junior Secondary Certificate (JSC) examinations in success on the basis of the results of a previous secondary schools in Ondo State, Nigeria? examination.Findings made by [1,10]

led credence to this
What is the level of performance of students in the point.These findings supported the findings of other Senior Secondary Certificate (SSC) examinations in researchers that the GCE and Secondary School secondary schools in Ondo State, Nigeria?Certificate examination results provided the best predictor of university performance [11].

Research hypotheses Findings made by [12] confirmed the validity of the
Ho 1: There is no significant relationship between number and grades of passes in the Scottish Certificate of students' performance in the overall JSC examinations and Education in predicting first year and final year university the performance in the overall SSC examinations in Ondo performance [13] also reported that high school grades State, Nigeria.could be used to predict college grades.These findings were however contrary to [14] findings that the Scholastic Ho 2: There is no significant relationship between Aptitude Test (SAT) is unable to predict examination students' performance in JSC English Language performance as effectively as the Leaving Certificate examinations and students' performance in SSC English Examination (LCE) point scores.
Language examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria.In Nigeria, researchers have had divergent findings on the predictive validity of some examinations [15,16].In Ho 3: There is no significant relationship between other developing countries, the index of academic students' performance in JSC Mathematics examinations performance varied from one country to another [17] and students' performance in SSC Mathematics found that the Kenya Certificate of Primary Education examinations in the State.scores had a moderate positive linear relationship with the Certificate of Secondary Education grades.In some other Ho 4: There is no significant relationship between States, performance in JSC examinations has been found students' performance in JSC Integrated science to be significantly related to the performance in SSC examinations and students' performance in SSC Physics examinations [16,18].However, some researchers have examinations in the State.found no significant relationship between the performance in JSC examinations and performance in SSC Ho 5: There is no significant relationship between examinations [19].Considering the divergent views and students' performance in JSC Integrated science findings of previous researchers on the predictive validity examinations and students' performance in SSC Chemistry of the JSC examinations, this study intended to examine examinations in the State.the JSC examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria to determine whether or not it could effectively predict students' Ho 6: There is no significant relationship between performance in the SSC examinations.
students' performance in JSC Integrated science

Statement of the problem:
The predictive strength of examinations in the State.certain examinations has been a matter of concern to many researchers [10].While some researchers were of the Ho 7: The performance of students in the JSC opinion that certain examinations such as the Scholastic examinations is not a significant predictor of the Aptitude Test (SAT) could predict university grades in performance of the same students at the SSC examinations some courses [10], others argued that certain low-level in Ondo State, Nigeria.examinations could not effectively predict performance at higher level examinations [18].The problem of this study MATERIALS AND METHODS therefore was to determine how effective the performance of students in the JSC examination in predicting the Research design: This study was designed along the performance of the same students in the SSC lines of a correlational research [13] described examinations.In addressing this problem, the following correlational research as that involving the collecting of research questions and hypotheses were raised.
data in order to determine whether and to what degree, a examinations and students' performance in SSC Biology analysis.Table 1 shows the credit performance level of schools.It also embraced all the 13 single-sex schools and students in the JSC examinations.244 mixed schools.A sample of 218 schools (85% of the As indicated in Table 1, the performance level of population) was drawn from the study population.The students in the three subjects in the JSC examinations in method of selection was through the stratified random the State was low in each of the three subjects.There was sampling technique taking into consideration the location no year where the performance level reached 50% in any of the schools.Thus, the sample was made up of 94 urban subject.(43%) and 124 (57%) rural secondary schools.

Research instrument:
The instrument used to collect students in the Senior Secondary Certificate (SSC) in data for the study was an inventory.The inventory secondary schools in Ondo State, Nigeria? requested among other things, data on enrolment figures In answering this question, data on the grades and students' grades in three major subjects in schools' obtained by students in the senior secondary certificate curriculum namely English Language, Mathematics and class three (SSC3) were collected from the principals of Integrated Science in the 2000 JSC examinations as well as the sampled schools for years 2000 to 2003.In computing students' grades in English Language, Mathematics, performance in the examinations, the frequency counts of Physics, Chemistry and Biology in the 2003 SSC the number of students who obtained credit grades 1 to 6 examinations.The choice of the subjects was in in each subject were transformed from discrete data into accordance with the National Policy on Education [2] continuous data through secondary analysis.The which regarded these subjects as core subjects in the weighted average performance is computed using the secondary school curriculum.Thus [20]  of candidates who obtained such grades [3].In the SSC students' performance in SSC English Language examinations, low-level results were also obtained.
examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria were collected from Table 2 shows the performance level in the examinations.
the principals of the sampled schools for year 2003.The As indicated in Table 2, the performance level of hypothesis was tested using the Pearson Product students in the five subjects was low and almost the same Moment correlation analysis.The findings are shown in in all the subjects.There was no particular year where the Table 4 percentage of performance was up to 40%.
In Table 4, the calculated r (0.62) was greater than the

Hypothesis 1
This shows a significant relationship between students' Ho 1: There is no significant relationship between performance in JSC English Language examination and students' overall performance in the JSC examinations and students' performance in SSC English Language the performance in the overall SSC examinations in Ondo examinations.State, Nigeria.In testing this hypothesis, data on the grades Hypothesis 3 obtained by students in the overall Junior Secondary Ho 3: There is no significant relationship between Certificate (JSC) examinations for year 2003 were collected students' performance in JSC Mathematics examinations from the principals of the sampled schools.Data on the and students' performance in SSC Mathematics overall performance students in the senior secondary examinations in the State.certificate (SSC) examinations were also collected from the In testing this hypothesis, data on the grades principals of the sampled schools.In computing obtained by students in JSC Mathematics examinations performance, the frequency counts of the number of and students' performance in SSC Mathematics students who obtained credit grades 1 to 6 in each subject examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria were collected from were transformed from discrete data into continuous data the principals of the sampled schools for year 2003.The through secondary analysis.The hypothesis was tested hypothesis was tested using the Pearson Product using the Pearson Product Moment correlation analysis.
Moment correlation analysis.The findings are shown in The findings are shown in Table 3.
Table 5 As indicated in Table 3, the calculated r (0.68) was In Table 5, the calculated r (0.09) was less than the greater than the table r (0.1946).Hence, the null table r (0.1946).Hence, the null hypothesis was accepted.hypothesis was rejected.This shows that there was a This shows that there was no significant relationship significant relationship between the students' between students' performance in JSC Mathematics performance in JSC examination and the performance in examination and students' performance in SSC SSC examinations in the State.

Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 4 Ho 2: There is no significant relationship between
Ho 4: There is no significant relationship between students' performance in JSC English Language students' performance in JSC Integrated science examinations and students' performance in SSC English examinations and students' performance in SSC Physics Language examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria.examinations in the State.
table r (0.1946).Hence, the null hypothesis was rejected.Testing this hypothesis, data on the grades obtained In Table 7, the calculated r (0.62) was greater by students in JSC Integrated Science examinations and than the table r (0.1946).Hence, the null hypothesis students' performance in SSC Physics examinations in was rejected.This indicates a significant relationship Ondo State, Nigeria were collected from the principals of between students' performance in JSC Integrated Science the sampled schools for year 2003.The hypothesis was examination and the performance in SSC Chemistry tested using the Pearson Product Moment correlation examinations.analysis.The findings are shown in Table 6 In Table 6, the calculated r (0.13) was less than the Hypothesis 6 table r (0.1946).Hence, the null hypothesis was accepted.
Ho 6: There is no significant relationship between This shows no significant relationship between students' students' performance in JSC Integrated science performance in JSC Integrated Science examination and examinations and students' performance in SSC Biology students' performance in SSC Physics examinations.
examinations in the State.8 shows that the calculated r (0.65) was greater Chemistry examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria were than the table r (0.1946).Hence, the null hypothesis was collected from the principals of the sampled schools rejected.This shows a significant relationship between for year 2003.The hypothesis was tested using the the students' performance in JSC Integrated Science Pearson Product Moment correlation analysis.The examination and students' performance in SSC Biology findings are shown in Table 7 examinations.

Hypothesis 5 obtained by students in JSC Integrated science
Testing this hypothesis, data on the  regression equation.The multiple R was.7145, the R In testing this hypothesis, data on the grades Square was.6142 and the adjusted R Square was.6101 obtained by students in JSC examinations and students' while the standard error was.0674.Table 11 shows the performance in SSC examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria significant t values derived form the regression analysis.were collected from the principals of the sampled As shown in Table 11, the variables that entered the schools for year 2003.In testing this hypothesis, regression equation at 0.05 level of significance included correlation analysis was used and a correlation matrix JSC 2000 English Language, JSC 2000 Integrated Science was derived showing correlation coefficients and and the overall JSCE 2000 performance.The best predictor probability values for each pair of variables.The findings of performance was the JSC 2000 English Language.It are presented in Table 9. contributed 45% to the criterion variable.Other predictors In Table 9, the correlation matrix shows the included the JSCE 2000 Integrated Science which correlation coefficients between each pair of variables.contributed 42% to the criterion variable and the overall Since the larger the value of 'r', the stronger the Performance in the 2000 JSCE examination which association between the two variables [22], it means that contributed 41%.The relative effects of the independent the pairs of variables with large correlation coefficients variables (JSCE 2000) on the dependent variable (SSCE had strong association with each other.In order to 2003) are indicated in Table 12.determine the inter-correlation among variables put
that the Osun State JSC examination is a poor predictor of DISCUSSION further research should still be conducted in this area.The In the foregoing, the predictive strength of the JSC Science could effectively predict performance in SSC examinations in predicting performance at the SSC Chemistry and Biology were however, contrary to the examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria was examined.findings made by [19] who reported that the JSC Although the performance level was low in the Integrated Science could not singly predict the examinations thereby supporting earlier findings [23][24][25], performance of students at the SSC Chemistry and the performance varied considerably form one subject to Biology.The findings indicating that the JSC another.The findings tend to agree with those of some Mathematics was not a good predictor of performance previous researchers [26].In some cases, the findings in SSC Physics negated the findings made by [7] who tend to disagree with those of some other researchers claimed that JSC Mathematics examination was a good [7,19,27].The findings indicating significant relationship predictor of performance at the SSC Physics in secondary between the performance of students in the JSC 2000 and schools in Ekiti State, Nigeria.The findings indicating that the performance of the same students in the SSC 2003 the JSC Mathematics was not a good predictor of examinations agreed with those of [17] who found that the performance in SSC Mathematics also negated the Kenya Certificate of Primary Education (CPE) had a findings made by [30] who reported that the JSC moderate linear relationship with the Cambridge Mathematics was the best predictor of SSC Mathematics secondary certificate (CSE) examination grades.The examinations.The findings however agreed with the findings were in consonance with the findings made findings made by [1] that the JSS English Language is a by [11] that students with high number of credits in good predictor of performance in the SSC English Nigerian secondary school examinations performed Language.It was however, noticed that multiple well in higher institutions.
regression revealed more about the variables and their students in the SSC examinations.This suggests that findings on indicating that performance in JSC Integrated relationship with students' credit performance in the SSC 8. Daniels, M. and J. Schouten, 1970.Education in examinations This might be due to the fact that multiple Europe: the screening of students, problems of regression provides an estimate of the variance in the assessment and prediction of academic performance.criterion variable accounted for by the predictor variables.
Council 12. Peers, I.S. and M. Johnston, 1994.Influence of The study population comprised in the Junior Secondary Certificate (JSC) examinations, the of all the 257 secondary schools that presented frequency counts of the number of students who candidates for the year 2000 Junior Secondary Certificate obtained credit grades A to C in each subject in the junior (JSC) examinations and the year 2003 Senior Secondary secondary certificate examinations were transformed from Certificate (SSC) examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria.The discrete data into continuous data through secondary population is made up of 110 urban school and 147

Table 1 :
Credit performance in JSC examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria

Table 2 :
Credit performance in SSC examinations in Ondo State, Nigeria

Table 3 :
Performance in the overall JSC and SSC examinations

Table 4 :
Performance in JSC english language and SSC english language

Table 5 :
Performance in JSC mathematics and SSC mathematics

Table 6 :
Performance in JSC integrated science and SSC physics

Table 7 :
Performance in JSC Integrated Science and SSC Chemistry

Table 8 :
Performance in JSC integrated Sc. and SSC biology examinations

Table 9 :
Correlation matrix of independent variables and dependent variable

Table 10 :
Multiple regression analysis of predictor variables with the criterion variable credit performance in SSC 2003 examination The performance of students in the JSC Integrated.Sc) +.4127 (JSCE Overall Performance).examinations is not a significant predictor of the performance of the same students at the SSC examinations As indicated in Table10, all the variables entered the in Ondo State, Nigeria.

Table 11 :
Output of the multiple regression analysis Credit Perf.2003 SSCE

Table 12 :
Effects of the independent variables (JSCE 2000) on the dependent variable(SSCE 2003) 2 for Cultural Co-operation of the Council of CONCLUSION 9. Owoyemi, N., 2000.Moderation and standardisation Based of the findings of this study, it is concluded junior secondary school certificate examination and that the performance of students at Junior Secondary primary school leaving certificate assessment Paper Certificate (JSC) examinations is a moderate predictor of presented at the senior staff seminar.Ministry of academic performance of students at the senior secondary Education, Ado-Ekiti, 2nd March, pp: 2-9.certificate (SSC) examinations in Ondo state, Nigeria.10.Al-Shorayye, S.R., 1995.The effect of admissions Considering the findings, it is recommended that the JSC policy, socio-economic factors and demographic and curriculum should be reviewed in line with the SSC syllabi personal considerations on students' performance at in the various subjects and in accordance with the Kuwait University.Unpublished PhD Thesis, provisions of the National Policy on Education [2].University of Hull UK., pp: 142-145.Government should organize more induction courses, 11.Ubokobong, H.E., 1993.Predicting educational seminars and workshops for teachers to expose them to performance at tertiary level on the basis of new strategies in teaching while the State Ministry of secondary level performance.International Journal Education should embark upon more inspection and of Mathematical Education in Science and monitoring of schools to ensure that effective teaching Technology, 24 (2): 287.and learning take place in schools.