De-Democratization and the Paradox of State Fragility: Can Nigeria’s Democracy Survive?

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the discourse of De-democratization and the paradox of State fragility with special attention to Nigeria. While employing content analytical methods and structural-functionalism theory, the paper argued that Nigerian democracy is bedeviled with enormity of challenges ranging from hollow electoral process, economic conundrum, inequality and marginalization, corruption, ethnic chauvinism among others, which has weakened the country’s democratization effort. Even though the country has existed for a century, it has failed to imbibe the democratic ethos. The discourse critically ventured into proffering possible ways that could ensure the survivability of Nigeria’s democracy with a post – colonial state formation


Introduction
With Nigeria's tortuous democratic transition to the fourth republic on May 29,1999 hopes were high about the possibility of the sustenance of democratic values in the country. Before the 1999 political transition, Nigeria was under firm control of military autocracy for close to 29years since 1966,when the military made their first incursion into Nigeria's government and politics, following the collapse of the first republic. Essentially, authoritarian governments were interrupted only by a brief period of civilian rule in the second republic 1979-1983(Lewis,1994. Thus, Nigeria's march to constitutional democracy was a chequered history marked by anti-colonial struggles, crises, coups, counter-coups and a thirty month agonizing civil war between 1967and 1970. Nwabueze (1989 notes that Nigeria has passed through five different phases, viz; i.
It should be emphasized that since 1989, the polity has added more phases to her democratization march. With the inglorious stepping aside of General Ibrahim Babanginda in 1993, an Interim National Government (ING) was put in place, headed by Earnest Shonekan, hand-picked by the unelected military president; thereby suffering inversely from legitimacy crisis abinitio. The interim contraption collapsed after 82 days, following the declaration that it was illegal by a Lagos High Union also characterized the behavior of the state (Adesina, 1998).
General Abdusalami Abubakar, who took over after Abacha, seemed to have learnt enormous lesson from the legitimacy crisis suffered by his predecessor. He made it known that he was prepared to hand over to civilians as scheduled. His effort dovetailed into the transition programme which was the shortest in the annals of military-midwifed political transition programmes in Nigeria (Ojo, 2004 c. To outline an alternative approach that would lead to the survivability of the post-colonial state of Nigeria.

Democracy
Democracy has been the subject of immeasurable interpretations by scholars over the years. It has often been used and misused, abused and described by people according to their perceptions and orientations. This is why Gitonga (1988) contends that, in view of the great variety and diversity of regimes and systems that pass for democracies it is not at all an easy matter to establish what the precise and objective meaning of democracy is, or can be. Without engaging ourselves into the controversy over the meaning, dimensions and foundations of democracy, we can see democracy in the light of its etymological series as the "rule of the people". Consequently, it is even more difficult to properly conceptualize "rule by the people". We therefore agree with one of the simplest, yet clearest definitions of democracy offered by Oyugi (1988) who describes it as the existence of an open polity that is responsive and accountable to the general citizenry.
In spite of the differences in conceptualization and practices of democracy, Osaghae (1992) notes that all its version, whether liberal or capitalist, socialist and African brand, share the fundamental objective of how to govern the society in such a way that power actually belongs to all the people.
Again, Chafe (1994) contends that democracy means, among others, the involvement of the people in the running of the political, socio-economic and cultural affairs of their society. Indeed, the peculiar virtue of democracy is thought to lie in the fact that it is the only form of government that can advance the interests of all the members of a politically organized community (Nkwede, 2013).
For the common good and mutual advantage to be realized, it is believed that government must be responsive to the wishes of the electorate. Unarguably, democracy as a political concept, is founded on three underlying ideals namely; democracy as a value, a process and a practice (Nzongola-Ntagalaja, 1997;Olugbade, 1992).A careful examination and analysis of democracy shows it as perhaps the most popular form of government because it not only guarantees popular participation but citizen's fundamental human rights as well as a government that exists and performs in the common interest of all.

Democratization
The concept and practice of democratization connote two basic principles. The first principle has to do with giving freedom to every citizen of a country to participate in all public affairs without hindrance or manipulation. The second principle relates to the treatment of the citizens of such a country as equals, without social class divisions. Attahir and Dunmoye (1994) argue that democratization is dependent on the expansion of social values and structures to facilitate the increased participation in the exercise of state power.
Form the above standpoint, democratization is the transition to a more democratic political regime, including substantive political changes moving in a democratic direction (Arugay, 2021). In some cases, it may be a hybrid regime in transition from an authoritarian regime to a full democracy, a transition from an authoritarian political system to a semi-democracy or transition from semi authoritarian political system to a democratic political system (Abjorensen, 2019 For Carothers (1999) countries undergoing a shift from authoritarianism does not imply that they are undergoing democratization. He further maintained that countries that undergo democratization do not necessarily become democracies-and fall into a "gray area" that involves aspect of democratization while simultaneously involving aspects of the previous authoritarian regime. More so, Doorenspleet (2010) argues that for democratization to be properly applicable the true meaning of democracy and authoritarianism must be defined for the specific context. For him, a country cannot claim to be undergoing democratization if it still presents severe human rights violations, poor state institutions, and other factors-regardless of its direction. Levitsky and Way (2010) present this as fake democracy and went further to classify it as competitive authoritarianism. And Carothers referred to it as a façade/semi-democracy while arguing that despite this resembling a democracy, it is not and cannot be recognized as one.
Notable example was drawn from Hungary, which due to its general acceptance as a democracy led few observers to recognize its decline. Levitsky and Way (2010) maintained that classifying a façade/Competitive authoritarianism regime democracy as a legitimate democracy is detrimental and result in misinformation regarding the specific country's actual policies along with promoting the potential rise of an authoritarian leader. Applying this concept to African,Geschiere& Jackson (2006) discusses the further damage of the potential misclassification of countries undergoing demoralization. To this end, as we explore the concept of democratization, what readily comes to mind is the variability of countries that are classified as undergoing the process of democratization, and we should not be oblivious of the consequences of misclassified nations.

De-Democratization
Over the years, there have been insinuations in the academic milieu of an illiberal trend in different states across the globe of resurgence of non-democratic powers, and of the risk of a global autocratic drift. However, different terms are used by scholars to describe the deterioration of the state of democracy viz: de-democratization, democratic erosion, democratic regression or democratic backsliding (Luo & Adam, 2023). democratic experiments, the expansion of rights, and the protection of people who live in its territories, but that is not the case even though they have practiced uninterrupted democracy since 1999. Many have always believed that when democracy reaches a country, it will be there forever, yet reverse is the case in Nigeria (Tilly, Ernesto, & Lesley, 2020). Nigeria is living in a period of dedemocratization with the current exclusion of minorities, limiting their cultural and religious rights in the name of national interest. There have been incessant attacks on freedom of speech, an increase in racialization and political violence, and violation of the rights of association for religious minorities coupled with the interminable corruption and hollow electoral process, and attacks on protesters for reforms in the system (Tilly, 1995, Nkwede, 2018. All these culminated to the dedemocratization in Nigeria judging from historical events and state capacity, the ability of the state to carry out its policies for the betterment of the generality of the Nigerian populace.

State Fragility
Fragility is the combination of exposure to risk and insufficient coping capacities of the state, system and/or communities to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks (OECD 2020). The import is that fragility is an expected risk, its occurrence is regular, and the lack of coping and mitigating it is the problem and threat to states and lives. Implicitly, the International Organization, global community, Governments, Communities and individuals could be fragile.
Nweke (2022) notes that state fragility is a risk that emerges from "weak or failing structures and to situations where the social contract is broken due to the state's incapacity or unwillingness to deal with its basic functions, meet its obligations and responsibilities regarding service delivery, management of resources, the rule of law, equitable access to power, security and safety of the populace and protection and promotion of citizens' rights and freedoms". From the above standpoint, it can safely be argued that fragility thrives because state policies and institutions are weak in these countries; making them vulnerable in their capacity to deliver services to their citizens, to control corruption, or to provide for sufficient voice and accountability. Similarly, they are a land of conflict and political instability. The concerned countries are caught in one or another of four traps: the  (Collier, 2007). Essentially, it should be emphasized that every country in the world has a degree of fragility, making it a global concern. But the greater concern is that most of the fragile countries are located in the global south.
Aware of the fact that the web of fragile statehood is complex and intriguing with the multifaceted interconnectedness, state fragility has five dimensions: political, economic, environmental, security and societal. Each of these dimensions is an embodiment of rumbling risk, undesirable and portends unimaginable danger for human livelihood and national security. Nweke (2022)  Nigerian State is making human beings particularly children and women, vulnerable and exposed to insecurity, poverty and extreme violence.

Theoretical Postulations
This study is anchored on structural functionalism. The structural functional theory (structural functionalism) is associated with Herbert Spencer (1903). The major assumption of structural functionalism is that it approached the society through a macro-level orientation as it looks at both social structure and social functions. According to Herbert Spencer (1903) he described state as "organs" that work toward proper functioning of the "body" as a whole. In the most basic terms, it simply emphasizes "effort to input", as rigorously as possible to each feature, custom or practice, its effects on functioning of a supposedly stale and cohesive system. This view is more often than not required to as how different organs or institutions of state perform their roles to ensure the stability of a process and towards the promotion of an ideal society. Scholars such as Talcott Parsons (1952) Leveraging on the above, it can safely be argued that if various organs perform their constitutionally assigned functions, there will be political stability, harmony and unity of purpose, but, role conflict among different organs or body in a democratic setting will promote anarchy, bad governance, infiltration, abuse of human rights, political instability, mesmerism of democratic ethos and processes, identity crisis and inefficiency among others. Since independence, Nigeria has been confronted with varied crises that have continued to ravage the foundation of the country's unity and corporate existence. The dimension of these crises include electoral crisis, crisis over resource sharing and control, inter-ethnic struggles, religious uprising/extremists deadly attacks, insurgency, and terrorism. Chiefly, among these is governance and democratic conundrum identified as the root of all pandemonium associated with African states, Nigeria inclusive.

Methodology
Documentary design was employed in this study. Data were elicited from secondary sources through the review of relevant texts, journals, official publications, newspapers, direct observation, media commentaries and scholarly writings on democratic backsliding and state fragility. The study also employed content analytical method wherein data collected through secondary sources were analyzed. This approach was necessary because it helps in gaining insight from the analysis of Dedemocratization and the paradox of state fragility with Nigeria in Perspective. In as much as the content analytical approach was relied upon to evaluate the data generated in the course of this study, it enables readers to understand the current Nigerian situation through holistic perspective.

Results and Discussion of Findings
As the whole world is experiencing the democratic wave, especially among developing nations, the experience in most sub-Saharan African countries is far from over. This is because civil rule has become tantamount to democracy. In Nigeria for example, democracy is something much talked about-a set objective pursued with vigour but not yet attained (Jega, 2000). At the inception of civil rule in May 1999, people accepted the new democracy in Nigeria with high hopes and expectations.
Citizens expected that democracy would be better than authoritarian and military dictatorship. They expected that there would be government based on the people's constitution, there would be respect for human rights and people's freedom and liberty would be guaranteed, they also expected better economic government resulting into better welfares for the citizens. Crisis free society was hoped Available online also at https://www.ajpasebsu.org.ng/ https://dx.doi.org/10.4314/ajpas.v16i1.6 for because they expected democracy to address the historical anomalies created by colonialism and military imposed feeding bottle federalism and authoritarianism. However, these expectations were dashed away as it seemingly become utopian.
One does not need to over emphasize the point that no viable political superstructure for example, of democracy can be rooted and sustained on an economic base that is so battered and ruined by  j. Electoral violence fueled by the political gladiators.
Going by the above tortuous democratic terrain and coupled with a number of inhibiting elements to democratic sustenance, it is obvious that Nigeria is heading towards de-democratization process. Table 1 and 2 below showcases democracy index in Sub-Saharan Africa and Nigeria with a view to justifying the democratic status quo ante of Nigeria. From the above democracy index, Nigeria falls at the Middle in Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria's democracy was given 4.11 points signifying that it is not yet ranking in the entire Africa as fully democratic. The index is based, according to the source, on the electoral process and pluralism, the government functions, political participation and culture as well as civil liberties. Many sub-Saharan and North African political systems are among the least democratic countries in the world. The Democratic Republic of the Congo has the most authoritarian regime in Africa and the fourth worldwide, after Central African Republic. Countries such as Mauritius, Botswana, Caboverde, South Africa, Namibia, Gana and Lesotho fell within the "hybrid regimes" with a score ranging from 8.08 points to 6.3 points meaning that they experience, for example, elections with irregularities, widespread corruption and Nigeria with 4.11 points is not an exceptional in this direction as it ranked 20 out of 44 countries. conflicts in the country can be traced back to this forced union. Even though the country has been together for over a century, it has failed to fully integrate. Northerners continue to be suspicious of their southern counterparts, and vice versa. There is a lot of debate about the "Northern agenda" and the "Southern agenda" but not much about the "Nigerian agenda".
4. Inequality/Marginalization: This is due to the governments and its agencies apparent favouring of people or regions belonging to one tribe over another. There is an unspoken belief that ethnic majority dominate affairs of the country, which makes minorities feel like secondclass citizens in their own country, not for any fault of their own, but because they are few, this causes a sense of perceived unfairness by the government and its apparatus towards these federating units. Nigeria's Immigration Agency and in the process, 16 people were murdered in a process. It should also be noted that unemployment is one of the key causes of social vices in the country.
Students who attend tertiary education institutions frequently leave with no employment and low skills during their education and were too preoccupied with reading textbooks to understand how to apply what they had learned. This negativity is one of the main reasons for crime among Nigeria youths as they turn to illegal activities since they have nothing better to do with their time or money. 300,000 students graduate from colleges each year, yet many struggles to find work and others resort to less than-honourable ways of livelihood.
9. Education: another challenging and critical issue of concern in Nigeria is her educational system. Nigerian schools nowadays are political meddling. This is because politics is the most powerful factor in the Nigeria educational system. Many educational institutions are now founded and administered on political grounds. Entrance to universities, colleges, and polytechnics, particularly universities are more often than not, influenced by politicians and academic merit dashed away. The cost of education in Nigeria is skyrocketing and unaffordable to many Nigerian parents.
10. Inconsistent Economic policies: Every government comes into office with their own economic policies which often differ from the policies of the previous administrations and to that extent, the previous polices suffer fatally from poor implementation because before it is fully implemental to produce maximum result in the economy, the tenure of the initiator would have elapsed, and the policies will not be implemented further by the proceeding administration; resulting in a situation of an ever changing and poorly implemented economic policies which does no good to the growth of the economy. This paper has extensively argued that the Nigeria state is gripped with democratic backsliding.

Conclusion/Recommendations
The paper concludes that the dearth of political responsiveness and development patriotism perpetuates the fragility and vulnerability of the state. Besides, a country that wants to transform, needs to invest in a political process that strengthens the institutions. With a compelling political process, other sectors will remain stable, from the economy to the environment. Stability makes countries sophisticated in economy and social cohesion. More so, the quality of governance is directly linked to the credibility of the elected process. This is because fragile statehood is a political economic crisis, and overcoming such process would require debate and arriving at a consensus on the appropriate government structure and process that could harness diversity and strengthen the capacity of the state.
Rethinking governance is an essential strategy that could lead to the stabilization of the political misfortunes in Nigeria. This is because fragile statehood is a political economic crisis and overcoming it begins with thinking and working politically on how to halt the governance challenges driving different dimensions of fragility. Extreme violent conflicts, slowing growth, corruption, electoral fraud, natural resources curse are a few of the governance challenges that require rethinking. The persistence of these in Nigeria's democracy counts for volatility, conflictual issues, and complexity in power contestation.