Electoral Participation and Democratic Consolidation in Nigeria: A Comparative Analysis of the 2015, 2019 and 2023 Presidential Elections

Abstract

The quality of democracy is largely determined by the level and nature of citizens’ political participation. In Nigeria, however, democratic participation continues to face challenges linked to institutional weakness, electoral malpractice, insecurity, and elite dominance. This study examines patterns of political participation in the 2015, 2019 and 2023 presidential elections to evaluate voter turnout, electoral competitiveness, and citizens’ trust in the electoral process. Employing a comparative descriptive research design, the study drew on documentary and quantitative data from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), national survey reports, and scholarly publications. Anchored on political participation and elite theories, the study explored how citizen engagement and elite control shape electoral behaviour and democratic outcomes. Findings reveal a consistent decline in voter turnout across the three election cycles, driven by widespread disillusionment, poor institutional credibility, and the perception that elections seldom influence governance outcomes. The study concludes that the sustainability of democracy in Nigeria depends on strengthening electoral integrity, deepening political accountability, and restoring citizens’ confidence in electoral institutions. It recommends comprehensive electoral reforms, inclusive political processes, and civic education as key strategies for enhancing political participation and consolidating democracy.