les cahiers du cread https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cread <p>Our Journal “<em>les cahiers du cread</em>” is a quarterly economic review publishing original findings of empirical research and theoretical debates on fields pertaining to our mission coverage (Macro Economics, Industrial Economics and Firms, Human Development &amp; Social Economics, Agriculture &amp; Environment).</p> <p>Other websites associated with this journal are: <a title="http://www.cread.dz" href="http://www.cread.dz" target="_blank" rel="noopener">http://www.cread.dz</a></p> CREAD en-US les cahiers du cread 2437-0568 The copyright belongs to The Journal (CREAD). ​Age at first marriage of Algerian women: Socio-economic determinants https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cread/article/view/210545 <p>This article examines the effect of socio-economic factors (education, place of residence, region of woman and woman cohort) on age at first marriage among Algerian women and the relative effects between generations of women. The data used are drawn from the MICS-4 multiple indicator cluster survey in Algeria from 2012- 2013. Survival models, especially Cox's proportional hazard model in addition to the multiple linear regression model, are used to analyze the data. The results show that education has a positive effect remains robust for almost all generations of women. Significant disparities are found in the place of residence and the woman's region, where urban women are found to be associated with a lower luck of marriage than rural women. In addition, early marriage is more marked among southern women, then women in the High Plateau and in the end, women of the North with some differences in terms of coefficient.<br><br></p> Ibrahim Zaimen Copyright (c) 2021-07-13 2021-07-13 37 2 5 34 Analyse des effets des subventions sur la croissance agricooe: Un essai de mesure pour la periode(2000-2018) https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cread/article/view/210546 <p>La mise en œuvre des différents plans de développement de l’agriculture en Algérie (2000-2018) va accélérer, structurer et élargir les mécanismes de soutien, ciblant particulièrement le développement des filières céréales et lait. Ces plans avaient pour objectif principal de catalyser l'accroissement de la valeur ajoutée et de la croissance agricole. Ce travail se caractérise par l'exploitation et l’analyse des données collectées sur les subventions réellement consommées, leur catégorisation, la caractérisation de leur destination finale, la période "ex post" prise comme base pour l'évaluation de l'impact global des différents programmes. Il utilise la modélisation (modèle à régression linéaire multiple), pour mesurer et analyser les effets sur la valeur ajoutée agricole et la croissance. Les résultats du modèle utilisé démontrent bien l'effet positif de ces soutiens à la production sur la valeur ajoutée agricole. Les résultats de cette étude devraient contribuer de manière objective et rigoureuse à la clarification des débats, suscités aujourd’hui en Algérie, quant à l'utilité et l'efficacité de ces subventions.</p> <p><strong><em>English title: Analysis of the effects of subsidies on agricultural growth: A test of measurement for the period (2000-2018)</em></strong></p> <p>The implementation of the various agricultural development plans in Algeria (2000-2018) will accelerate, structure and widen the support&nbsp;mechanisms targeting in particular the development of the cereal and milk sectors. The main objective of these planswas to catalyze the increase in added value and agricultural growth. This work is characterized by the exploitation and analysis of the data collected on the subsidies actually consumed, their categorization, the characterization of their final destination, the "expost" period taken as a basis for the evaluation of the overall impact of the different programs. It uses modeling, a multiple linear regression model, to measure and analyze the effects on agricultural value added and growth. The results of the model used well demonstrate the positive effect of this production support on agricultural value added. This study should contribute in an objective and rigorous way to the clarification of the debates aroused today in Algeria as for the utility and the effectiveness of these subsidies.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> Sid Ahmed Ferroukhi Mohamed Yazid Boumghar Foued Chehat Copyright (c) 2021-07-13 2021-07-13 37 2 35 65 Forecasting future natural gas demand in Algeria using Ba Yesian Model Averaging https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cread/article/view/210547 <p>The purpose of this article is to forecast the Algerian natural gas consumption through a combinative method using the Bayesian moving average model (BMA).Four variables for forecasting the natural gas consumption have been chosen, including global domestic product (GDP), electricity demand (ELCD), urban population(UPOP)and industrial structure (INST). The study concludes that among the four variables that have been applied, ELCD is the first most important variable affecting natural gas consumption; the UPOP comes second and then the INST. This reflects the share of the gas use sectors in Algeria: first electricity production, then households, then industry. Based on some pertinent hypotheses and according to BMA estimations of future gas demand, the National demand would be between 62 B cm and 80 B cm by 2028 with an average annual growth rate between3% and 6%.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> Nawel Kerriche Oum El Kheir Moussi Copyright (c) 2021-07-13 2021-07-13 37 2 67 102 Influence of inflation on output fluctuations: Empirical study in case of Algeria using ARDL model https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cread/article/view/210548 <p>The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the effect of inflation on GDP fluctuation in Algeria using ARDL model during the period 1980-2018. We have found that Bank of Algeria didn't succeed in reducing inflation rates, even after its adoption of the inflation targeting policy starting in 2011. The empirical study showed that there is a negative and significant effect of inflation on output gap in the long-run, when the inflation rate falls, the output gap increases significantly, making inflation affect negatively on output fluctuations. Also, the results showed that the increase of money supply lead to the expansion of output gap.<br><br></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><br><br></p> Abdelaziz Taiba Nacer eddine Karaachira Sarra Bouguesri Copyright (c) 2021-07-13 2021-07-13 37 2 103 126 Les réformes de la filière lait en Algérie: Bilan et perspectives https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cread/article/view/210549 <p>Les politiques laitières –coûteuses- adoptées en Algérie ont montré leur échec si l’on note l’importance de l’importation dans le schéma organisationnel de la filière. Ainsi, n’est-il pas étonnant de constater le maintien de ces mêmes politiques malgré leur inefficacité ? Le présent article propose une analyse de la stratégie retenue pour le développent de la filière lait en Algérie et ses impacts dans la durée.<br><br></p> Kousseila Bellil Moussa Boukrif Copyright (c) 2021-07-13 2021-07-13 37 2 129 157 Effect of the training strategy on the performance of workers in petroleum institutions. Field Study of National institute of Welles services ENSP https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cread/article/view/210550 <p>The study aims at identifying the contribution of the training strategy in improving the performance of workers in petroleuminstitutions in general and the National Institute for wells services inparticular as the latter is the field of study by addressing two mainaxes. The first axis includes the conceptual framework of the trainingstrategy and the performance of the workers (general concepts) andthe second axis was devoted to address the reality of the trainingstrategy of the national institution of wells services.The most important results of the study, and through theinterview conducted with the human resources department, showsthat the institution is always seeking to develop a training strategyaccording to its projects and investments and future goals, and theinstitution did not fall into the problem of the need for humanresources when acquiring new mechanisms or starting a new activity,With regard to the identification of training needs, the institutionseeks to give them great importance and is able to identify themaccurately, through the control of the performance of the worker, aswell as through a comparison between the capabilities and skills of the current staff and the requirements of the job to be implemented;</p> Oualid Grounga Nour Houda Mahdjoubi Umm El-Khair Rebouh Copyright (c) 2021-07-13 2021-07-13 37 2 159 179 L'impact du choc pétrolier sur la performanve relative des banques en Algérie: Banques publiques vs banques privées étrangères https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cread/article/view/210551 <p>Cet article vise à étudier l'impact du choc pétrolier sur la performance financière relative des banques algériennes, en tenant compte de la nature de propriété (publique vs privée étrangère). Toutes les banques opérant en Algérie durant la période 2010-2017 sont considérées. Une méthodologie DEA à deux phases est utilisée. D'abord, à travers l'approche DEA, les scores d'efficience des banques sont évalués pour chaque année. Ensuite, ces scores sont expliqués en fonction de la propriété de la banque, des variations des prix du pétrole et des variables de contrôle appropriées. Pour tester la robustesse des résultats, trois méthodes d’estimation, dont PCSE, sont appliquées. Globalement, les résultats montrent que les banques privées étrangères sont financièrement plus performantes que les banques publiques. En effet, lorsque les prix du pétrole sont favorables, la différence des moyennes de l'efficience relative globale (technique) est en faveur des banques privées étrangères. Cependant, durant les années de vaches maigres, cet avantage diminue significativement. Les résultats semblent indiquer, ceteris paribus, qu'un ratio d'intermédiation supérieur implique une efficience globale (technique) significativement plus élevée. En outre, la taille a une influence positive et significative sur l'efficience globale. Ces résultats semblent être robustes et ne dépendent pas de la méthode d'estimation. Toutefois, les significativités des ratios adéquation du capital et qualité des actifs ainsi que du taux de croissance du PIB sont mitigées.&nbsp;</p> Mohamed Touati-Tliba Billel Benilles Copyright (c) 2021-07-13 2021-07-13 37 2 181 207 Repenser l'Universite Algerienne apres le COVID-19: Vers l'Universite socialement responsable https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cread/article/view/210552 <p>La notion de responsabilité sociale (RSU) ne s’est jamais aussi imposée que lors de ces moments de crise sanitaire mondiale causée par le COVID-19.L’université en général et algérienne en particulier se voit confrontée à des défis auxquels elle n’aurait jamais pensé ni ne se serait préparée auparavant. Aussi, à travers cet article nous proposons une réflexion pratique à travers un modèle de formalisation d’une démarche de RSU où toutes les parties prenantes trouveront leur place afin d’anticiper et faire face aux conséquences de l’après COVID-19.<br><br></p> Hind Hadj Slimane-Kheroua Wassila Tabet Aouel-Lachachi Copyright (c) 2021-07-13 2021-07-13 37 2 209 237 Analytical study of financing policies for the agricultural sector in Sudan (1998-2018) https://www.ajol.info/index.php/cread/article/view/210553 <p>The objective of the study is to shed light on the sources and policies of financing the agricultural sector in Sudan, addition to checkup the impact of both internal and external financing on theagricultural production in the short and long run during the period(1998-2018), using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The results arrived that there is a positive impact for each of the government developmental expenditures in the agricultural sector and foreign direct investment in the agricultural sector on the agricultural production in the short and long run, Whereas the effect of bank financing was in the long run only. The study recommended that priority should be given to the development of the agricultural sector through allocating an estimated part of development financing to this sector, in addition to the good management of the monetary financing policy and directing it towards the agricultural sectors.</p> Khaled Mahdjoub Abdallah Mohamed Aissa Mouhoubi Nabil Kandi Copyright (c) 2021-07-13 2021-07-13 37 2 239 275