The climate–crime connection: evidence from Katsina State, Nigeria

Abstract

There is growing concern that global environmental change and degradation are increasingly threatening livelihoods and contributing to rising insecurity across the Sahel and other arid regions. In response, this study examined the intersection of climate change and crime in Katsina State - a semi and arid region of Nigeria. The state was divided into three study sites corresponding to distinct
latitudinal zones to capture spatial variations in climate impacts and crime patterns. Temperature and rainfall data spanning 30 years (1991–2020) were obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), while crime data for the same period were collected from the Research and Planning Unit of the Nigeria Police State Headquarters in Katsina. The data were analyzed using the Pearson
Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient (PPCM). The results revealed a positive correlation between rainfall and crime in Funtua (r = 0.011) and Kafur (r = 0.15) in the southern zone; Dutsin-Ma (r =0.389) and Matazu (r = 0.422) in the central zone; and Daura (r = 0.472) and Batagarawa (r = 0.477) in the northern zone. Similarly, a positive correlation was found between temperature and crime in
Funtua (r = 0.389) and Kafur (r = 0.422) in the southern zone, as well as in Daura (r = 0.609) and Batagarawa (r = 0.500) in the northern zone. However, in the central zone, the relationship between temperature and crime was not significant in Dutsin-Ma (r = 0.089) and Matazu (r = 0.11). The study demonstrates the influence of changing climatic parameters on crime rates over time. It also
reveals that crime incidence patterns in the state align with geographical latitude, increasing from lower to higher latitudes. The study concludes that significant relationships exist between climate change and crime in Katsina State and calls for government policies to address climate-induced crime, particularly during the rainy and hot seasons when such crimes are most prevalent.