Evaluating the impact of chemoprevention on malaria transmission dynamics in Jigawa State, Nigeria: a mathematical modeling approach

Abstract

Malaria remains a persistent public health challenge in endemic and resource-limited regions. This study develops a mathematical model of malaria transmission tailored to Jigawa State, Nigeria, incorporating key interventions such as bed-net usage, insecticide spraying, and preventive chemotherapy. Theoretical analysis shows that the disease-free equilibrium is stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one, while an endemic equilibrium exists when it exceeds one. The model is calibrated using local malaria case data to evaluate the relative effectiveness of these control strategies. Results indicate that chemoprevention contributes to reducing malaria transmission by protecting high-risk populations and lowering the number of susceptible individuals. However, its impact is gradual compared to interventions that directly reduce mosquito density and human–mosquito contact. The findings further show that the effectiveness of chemoprevention is significantly enhanced when combined with high bed-net compliance and consistent insecticide spraying. Under such integrated strategies, the basic reproduction number can be reduced to , with the potential for malaria elimination within 15 to 20 years. In general, the study demonstrates that while chemoprevention alone may not interrupt transmission, it remains an essential component of a comprehensive malaria control strategy. By integrating chemoprevention with vector control measures, this work provides a data-driven framework for optimizing intervention strategies and supporting policy decisions aimed at accelerating malaria elimination in endemic settings such as Jigawa State.