Nature-related risks, insurance vulnerability and community health resilience in Eswatini: Structural barriers and pathways for a small African economy

Abstract

Across Africa, nature-related risks (NRRs), including floods, drought, hailstorms, wildfires, and
biodiversity loss, act as powerful structural determinants of community health and well-being.
However, the mechanisms through which these risks undermine health resilience, particularly via
financial protection gaps in Africa's insurance sector, remain poorly understood. This paper
addresses the gap by conducting one of the first empirical examinations of how NRRs affect
insurance operations and risk management in Eswatini, a small, climate-vulnerable economy with
low insurance penetration and high dependence on natural capital. Adopting a qualitative,
exploratory case study design, the study draws on 22 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with senior
managers, underwriters, and regulators from Lidwala Insurance Company and Eswatini Financial
Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA), conducted between March and September 2025. Data were
analysed using Braun and Clarke's (2023) six-step thematic analysis. The study identified three
transmission channels: increased claims volatility, heightened underwriting risk, and asset-side
investment exposure. Three structural constraints: inadequate environmental data infrastructure, a
shortage of locally trained actuarial expertise, and regulatory frameworks that do not incorporate
NRR considerations. Grounded in the TNFD-LEAP approach and integrated with systems,
institutional and sociological risk theories, the paper proposes a novel conceptual framework linking
NRR exposure, institutional capacity, and regulatory alignment as interdependent determinants of
the insurance sector and community health resilience. Findings highlight how knowledge
dependency, imported regulatory models and capacity deficits erode health sovereignty in an
ecologically dependent context. The paper offers actionable insights for African regulators, insurers,
and development partners seeking to strengthen ecological and health resilience in capacityconstrained African contexts.