Stochastic Simulation of Hourly Average Wind Speed in Umudike , South-East Nigeria

Abstract

Ten years of hourly average wind speed data were used to build a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. The model was used to simulate hourly average wind speed and recommend possible uses at Umudike, South eastern Nigeria. Results showed that the simulated wind behaviour was reproducible and matched well with the characteristics of the experimental values. The model may thus be used to forecast wind speed and its impact on the environment of Umudike, very accurately. Specifically the wind speed values have the capacity of propelling a wind bound generating plant capable of serving as a back-up power to the national grid.
Key words: Simulation; wind speed; SARIMA Model; Forecasts; Back-up Power.


(Global Journal of Mathematical Sciences: 2002 1 (1&2): 59-66)