Rainfall response to dam/irrigation projects in northern Nigeria

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the possibility that the increasing number and size of dam/irrigation projects in northern Nigeria are having a corresponding increase in rainfall in spite of the threat of climate change. We modeled the rainfall trends over 11 meteorological stations over a period of 34 years (1971 - 2004). The trends were compared with each other based on the closeness of the meteorological stations with dam/irrigation projects. Results obtained showed a compelling evidence of a direct relationship between rainfall and dam/irrigation projects. The results indicated that the average rate of change in rainfall trends for the 11 stations ranged from – 4.08 to 24.83mm per annum. Kano area had 24.83mm while Jos area had - 4.08. Results obtained in this study thus provide evidence as to the extent that rainfall has responded to dam/irrigation projects.

KEYWORDS: Dam/Irrigation projects; climate change; trend modeling; and rainfall trends.