Analysis Of Trends In Livestock Production In Nigeria: 1970-2005
The livestock industry as an important component of general agriculture is expected to be a key contributor to national development. This study analyzes the livestock production trends in Nigeria with a view to ascertaining the influence of policy changes on real output of livestock over time, and investigates the existence of acceleration, stagnation or deceleration in growth of livestock production at different periods. Secondary data on real production for the 1970-2005 periods were obtained from the publications of the Central Bank of Nigeria. Annual compound growth indices were calculated from the estimated trend equations while existence of acceleration, stagnation or deceleration in growth was investigated using quadratic equations in the time trend variables of the livestock production data. Results reveal that the growth rate, which was less than 1% per annum during the 1970-1985 pre-SAP period increased to 6.44% and 8.92% per annum respectively during the 1986-1998 SAP and 1999-2005 post-SAP eras. The compound growth rate was computed as 4.83% per annum during the entire period under study. Presence of statistical significant acceleration (p<0.01) was found during the entire 1970-2005 period. However, whereas the 1986-1998 period recorded statistical significant deceleration (p<0.01), the periods 1970-1985 and 1999-2005 had confirmed cases of stagnation. The study suggests that for deregulation policy to result to desired accelerated growth in livestock production it should be accompanied by relevant farm support policies, like provision of accessible credit and subsidization of agricultural inputs, to produce the desired multiplier effects on agriculture and food production.
Keywords: livestock, production trends, policy changes, growth, Nigeria
Journal of Agriculture and Social Research Vol. 8 (1) 2008: pp. 114-120