Detection of Climate Trends Over Ethiopia Using Geospatial Techniques

Abstract

Ethiopia is expected to be hardest hit by climate change; to which  agriculture is the most vulnerable. Point analysis of climate data for one of the semi arid areas (Mekelle, Northern Ethiopia) for the period of  1980-2010 showed that minimum temperature for the months of October through January had an increasing trend while maximum temperature for the hot season (April- June) and annual rainfall had no significant trend and were inconsistent. Raster climate data including maximum  temperature for warm season (April- June), cold season (October- January) and rainfall for the rainy season (June- September) for the years 1946 and 2006 were extracted from Climate Research Unit (CRU) Geospatial Raster Data Portal for Ethiopia. The change detection is unidirectional trend analysis between two time periods of 1946 and 2006. Temperature shows increasing trend but rainfall shows fluctuation. Region- Specific detailed and seasonal climate studies are needed and to be integrated with local context of agriculture, livelihoods, forecasts and development plans for effective Early Warning Systems to utilize climate potentials and minimize natural disasters. This study serves as a milestone for further detailed agroclimatic and sector based analysis of spatio temporal climate change patterns, impact assessment and adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Keywords: Ethiopia; climate change detection; CRU; GIS; Spatiotemporal analysis.