Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Fiscal Policy Response in Algeria An Econometric Study For The Period 2000-2021 Using The Non Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL)

Abstract

This study aims to measure and analyze the asymmetry in the impact associated with crude oil price shocks on the fiscal policy response  in Algeria during the period 2000-2021, Using The Non Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL), coupled with asymmetry  test and shock analysis. The econometrics results showed that there are: firstly, along-term equilibrium relation ship between  government spending and positive changes in the price of oil and negative changes in the price of oil. Secondly, the price of crude oil  exerts an asymmetric effect on government spending in the short and long term. Thirdly, Fiscal policy in Algeriais more responsive to  positive shocks in the price of crude oil in the short and long terms, compared to negative shocks in the price of crude oil.