Determining the transitional period of Tiga Dam in dry and wet seasons using Markov chain analysis

Abstract

In this paper we constructed the Stochastic Matrix of Tiga dam of Kano State using the method of Transition Count Matrix of a Markov Chain with non-stationary probabilities to enable us study its effects on seasonal variation. The dam is systematically and arbitrarily classified into three states of 0.5R, 0.3R & 0.2R, R  the range of the distribution, as states respectively representing upper, medium and lower elevations. The result indicates that in the long run, the dry season the dam will be 25%, 70% and 5% in the lower, medium and upper elevations respectively. The result also indicates that in the long run of the raining season, the dam will be 16%, 40% and 44% in the lower, medium and upper elevations respectively.