Determining the transitional period of Tiga Dam in dry and wet seasons using Markov chain analysis

  • I. Adam Mukhtar
  • A. Isma'il Lawan
Keywords: Markov chain, transition matrix, reservoir, elevation.

Abstract

In this paper we constructed the Stochastic Matrix of Tiga dam of Kano State using the method of Transition Count Matrix of a Markov Chain with non-stationary probabilities to enable us study its effects on seasonal variation. The dam is systematically and arbitrarily classified into three states of 0.5R, 0.3R & 0.2R, R  the range of the distribution, as states respectively representing upper, medium and lower elevations. The result indicates that in the long run, the dry season the dam will be 25%, 70% and 5% in the lower, medium and upper elevations respectively. The result also indicates that in the long run of the raining season, the dam will be 16%, 40% and 44% in the lower, medium and upper elevations respectively.

Published
2021-04-25
Section
Articles

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eISSN: 1116-4336