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Journal of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics

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Multi-Level Risk Assessment of a Power Plant Gas Turbine Applying the Criticality Index Model

JI Achebo

Abstract


Turbines are a major component in Power Plants, utilized in the generation of electricity. To maintain the service lives of these Turbines, studies have shown that they need to be routinely maintained every two years and maintenance crews are encouraged to run a major overhaul at least once every five years. However, Turbine maintenance in Nigerian power  generating Plants is unimaginably low; there are incessant plant shut
downs, and up to 95% of both foreign and local manufacturers have either shut down production or have wound up altogether. This study was spurred on because of the problems posed by these limitations. Secondary data was taken, containing the failed component parts of a vital Turbine. These parameters were subjected to a Criticality Index Model analysis. Three classifications were thereafter obtained from the four suggested in this study. The failed component parts in severity Class I are grouped as
catastrophic, and the failure of these parts could lead to complete system shut down because the failure of these parts could lead to the failure of other parts. The component parts in severity Class II, are grouped as being critical, and could make the plant unavailable for a long time but the failed component parts may not affect the other parts adversely. None of these component parts fitted the criteria that guided severity Class III. The failed component parts in severity Class IV may not affect adversely other parts in the Turbine but could make the Turbine unavailable for a short time. This study has carefully shown and expressed a step by step computation of the severity level of the Turbine component parts, using the Criticality Index model.



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