Econometric Trend and Impact Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature on Yam Productivity in Nigeria: 1961-2020
Abstract
Changes in concentration of atmospheric parameters will have momentous impact on crop production. The projected changes in climate variability and increase in extreme weather events may impact crop yield. This is of particular importance for yam crop (Dioscorea spp.), as it a desired staple food for greater population in Nigeria. The aim of this study is to examine the impact some selected climatic parameters (rainfall and temperature ) on yam yield in Nigeria from 1961 to 2020 (60 years). Climatic data and yam yield data of Nigeria for this study were extracted from Climate Change Knowledge Portal on The World Bank Group and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAOSTAT website respectively. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and time series analysis was done with the aid of Real Statistics Data Analysis Tool installed in Microsoft Excel 2016 as Add-Ins. The statistcal results and forcast analysis shows that yam yield in Nigeria decreased with increase in rainfall and relatively stable temperature, despite increase in the cultivated area of land. Multiple linear regression analysis also indicated that the climatic factors are not significant predictors of yam yield. Finally, the disturbing findings of projected decline in yam yield may be due to other factors, would contribute to increase food scarcity in Nigeria.
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