Dichotomizing Household Food Security in Nigeria: Evidence from a Multivariate Analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of household food security in Nigeria using consumption and expenditure-based measures within a multivariate analytical framework. It utilized data from the 2018/2019 National Longitudinal Phone Survey (NLPS), covering 1,680 households. Food security is assessed using total food consumption expenditure, a binary food insecurity indicator derived from minimum consumption thresholds, and food expenditure share as a welfare proxy consistent with Engel’s law. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), binary logit regression, and average marginal effects are employed to examine the drivers of household food security outcomes. The results indicate that household food security is influenced by a combination of demographic, economic, asset-based, and infrastructural factors. Higher total household consumption expenditure, engagement in non-farm activities, access to electricity, ownership of a television, improved housing quality, and access to financial institutions significantly increase food consumption expenditure. The likelihood of food insecurity declines with access to internet services, ownership of livestock and residential housing, and financial inclusion, while older household heads face a higher probability of food insecurity. Analysis of food expenditure share further shows that age, literacy, internet access, remittances, and access to financial institutions reduce the proportion of household expenditure devoted to food, signaling improved welfare, whereas rural residence and non-farm employment are associated with higher food expenditure shares. Overall, the findings underscore the multidimensional nature of food insecurity in Nigeria and suggest that policy efforts should prioritize digital inclusion, asset accumulation, financial access, and livelihood diversification to achieve sustainable household food security.