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SAHARA-J: Journal of Social Aspects of HIV/AIDS

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Weak signal detection: A discrete window of opportunity for achieving ‘Vision 90:90:90’?

Christopher J Burman, Marota Aphane, Peter Delobelle

Abstract


Introduction: UNAIDS’ Vision 90:90:90 is a call to ‘end AIDS’. Developing predictive foresight of the unpredictable changes that this journey will entail could contribute to the ambition of ‘ending AIDS’. There are few opportunities for managing unpredictable changes. We introduce ‘weak signal detection’ as a potential opportunity to fill this void.

Method: Combining futures and complexity theory, we reflect on two pilot case studies that involved the Archetype Extraction technique and the SenseMakerw CollectorTM tool.

Results: Both the piloted techniques have the potentials to surface weak signals – but there is room for improvement. Discussion: A management response to a complex weak signal requires pattern management, rather than an exclusive focus on behaviour management.

Conclusion: Weak signal detection is a window of opportunity to improve resilience to unpredictable changes in the HIV/AIDS landscape that can both reduce the risk that emerges from the changes and increase the visibility of opportunities to exploit the unpredictable changes that could contribute to ‘ending AIDS’.

Keywords: complexity theory, futures science, autopoiesis, Cynefin framework, HIV/AIDS

Resume
Introduction: L’ONUSIDA’ Vision 90:90:90 est un appel a ‘“mettre fin au SIDA”. De´veloppement de prospects pre´dictives de changements impre´visibles ce voyage entraıˆnera pourrait contribuer. Il y a peu de possibilite´s de gestion des changements imprevisibles. Nous introduisons la de´tection de signaux faibles comme une opportunite potentielle de combler cette lacune.

Methode: combinant la science des futures et la theorie de la complexite nous reflechissons sur deux etudes de cas pilotes qui impliquent la Technique d’Extraction d’Arche type et l’outil SenseMakerw CollectorTM. Re´sultats: les deux techniques pilotes ont le potentiel de faire surface aux signaux faibles – mais il y a de la place pour de l’ame´lioration.

Discussion: la gestion d’un signal faible complexe ne´cessite une gestion de formes, plutot que de se concentrer exclusivement sur les modes de comportement.

Conclusion: detection des signaux faibles constitue une fenetre d’opportunite pour ame´liorer la resilience aux changements impre´visibles qui surviennent dans le paysage SIDA qui peuvent a la fois reduire le risque qui emerge de ces changements et accroıtre la visibilite des opportunites a exploiter les changements impre´visibles qui pourraient contribuer a mettre fin au SIDA”.

Mots-cles: theorie de la complexite, sciences des futures, autopoiesis, Cynefin framework, VIH/SIDA




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