Statistical mapping of factor relationships in the South African public primary school system

Abstract

In this paper we examine socio-economic and household factors linked to learner progression in South African public primary schools, focusing on the Western Cape and Gauteng provinces. We analysed the 2022 General Household Survey using factor analysis, multilevel regression, and structural equation modelling to develop a statistically valid factor map of the public primary school system. Predictive models validated these relationships and revealed key socio-economic influences, highlighting the importance of household stability, parental involvement, and early childhood conditions for academic success. The findings show that family wealth, household stability, and school-based support were the strongest predictors of learner progression, clarifying how conditions outside the school environment shaped outcomes and offering insights for policy. The study provides a foundation for future research into targeted interventions to reduce educational inequality in South Africa.