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Tanzania Journal of Science

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Mathematical Model for Tanzania Population Growth

Andongwisye Mwakisisile, Allen Mushi

Abstract


In this paper, a mathematical model for Tanzania population growth is presented. The model is developed by using exponential and logistic population growth models. Real data from censuses conducted by Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) are used. The Tanzania growth rate is obtained by using data of 1967 and 2012 censuses. The prediction of population for the period of 2013 to 2035 is done. Numerical results show that the population grows at the rate of 2.88%. In 2035 the population is expected to be 87,538,767 by exponential model and 85,102,504 by logistic model. The carrying capacity is 2,976,857,550, which implies that the population will still grow faster since it is far from its limiting value. Comparisons of the models with real data from the five censuses are done. Also NBS projections are compared with populations predicted by the two models. Both comparisons show that the exponential model is performing better than logistic model. Also, the projection up to 2050 gives the population of 135,244,161 by exponential model and 131,261,794 by logistic model.

Keywords: Population growth, Exponential model, Logistic model, Carrying Capacity.




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