The generation and use of cumulative probability distributions in flood risk assessment for the Mfolozi flood-plain

Abstract

The traditional method of presenting flood damage is to calculate the mean annual flood damage. This approach does not explicitly point out the risk of floods and communities do not have an indication of what the risk implications of various floods are. A clearer picture of the uncertainty of flood damages as well as the damage implications can be created by constructing and using cumulative probability distribution curves. The inclusion of flood damage on a stochastic basis is most definitely an extension of previous flood research, which only used deterministic analysis. With this approach, flood-plain dwellers can comprehend better the nature, scope and potential effects of the risk invalued. The main aim of this paper is to explain better the potential risk of floods to flood-plain dwellers by constructing and using cumulative probability distribution curves.


WaterSA Vol.27(1) 2001: 27-34