Potential future risk of cholera due to climate change in northern Nigeria

Abstract

Cholera is one of the infectious diseases that remains a major health burden in West-Africa and especially in Nigeria. Several studies have raised concern that climate change may exacerbate the risk of the disease in the future. Projecting the future risk of this disease is essential, especially for regions where the projected climate change impacts, and infectious disease risk, are both large. Projections were made by forcing an empirical model of cholera with monthly simulations of four meteorological variables from an ensemble of ten statistically downscaled global climate model projections for Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Result indicates statistically significant increases in cases during April-September for RCPs 6.0 and 8.5 in both near (2020-2035) and far (2060-2075) future. The months with the largest increases coincide with the months (May and June) in which maximum temperature increases are also large. Cases only showed potential increases in the wettest months of July and August in the far future projections for RCPs 6.5 (8.3 and 7.9%) and 8.0 (17 and 21%) respectively.

Keywords: Climate change; Cholera; Projections; Nigeria