Provincial differentials of the effect of internal migration on teenage fertility in South Africa

Abstract

This study investigated the association between internal migration and teenage fertility in South Africa. Data were from the 2007 and 2016 South African community surveys, N2007= 89800 and N2016=239733, age range 12 to 19, black teenagers= 81.5% and 89.4%, respectively. Results showed that between 2007 and 2016 internal migration levels decreased by 2% nationally, but increased for Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu Natal provinces. Teenage fertility levels decreased in all provinces except the Northern Cape in the study period. In both years teenage fertility was observed at higher levels among girls that were older, heads of households, and who were in secondary schooling. Random-intercept multilevel binary logistic regression revealed that the risk of teenage fertility differed between more rural and urban provinces. In provinces that were predominantly rural the risk of teenage pregnancy increased as community-levels of internal migration increased while the risk decreased as internal migration increased in provinces that were predominantly urban. Findings suggest that the effects of internal migration on teenage pregnancy are largely dependent on the local context making it necessary to create interventions that are context-specific at sub-national levels.