Estimation of the rates of growth of rice output, import and export in Nigeria (1980 – 2023)

Abstract

The study empirically investigated productivity growth, imports, and exports of rice in Nigeria (1980 - 2023). Specifically, the study estimated the trends of output, import and export of rice in Nigeria; estimated the rates of growth of rice output, import and export and forecasted the doubling time in the exponential growth rate of output, import and export in Nigeria; and estimated the level of acceleration, deceleration or stagnation in the growth processes of rice output, import and export. Time series data sourced from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI); United State Development Agency (USDA), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and Central Bank (CBN) Statistical Bulletin were used. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Malmquist productivity index and Multiple Regression analysis. Results on the estimated trend equations for quantity of rice produced, imported and exported showed that time variable played a significant role over the period with r­­­² values of 0.877, 0.625 and 0.061. The study recorded compound growth rates of 5.55%, 12.30% and -3.63% for rice output, import and export respectively. Rice production and import showed decelerated growth with negative significant values of (-0.001) and (-0.004) while rice export showed stagnation with a non-significant value of (0.034). The study concludes that despite sustained growth in rice production in Nigeria from 1980 to 2023, the decelerating growth rate and stagnant export performance have contributed to continued reliance on rice imports. The study recommends farm support policies such as subsidization of rice inputs for the desired multiplier effects on rice production and provision of yield increasing technologies to reduce time required to double the growth rate of rice.