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Detecting changes in Precipitation Extremes Using Global Circulation Models in the Ogun – Osun River Basin, South West Nigeria

E.C. Okogbue
I.A. Balogun
A. Akinbobola
O. Adeyeri
A. Oluleye
V.O. Ajayi
F.O. Akinluyi
A.S. Akinwumiju
S.O. Ige
I.A. Raji


The study evaluates the projected changes in precipitation extremes over the Ogun-Osun River basin. The study was carried out using the ensemble mean of selected CORDEX models. Precipitation extremes were detected using indices such as the Annual total wet-day (prcptot), consecutive wet days (CWD), consecutive dry days (CDD), Total annual RR from very heavy rain days (R99p), Total annual RR  from heavy rain days (R95p), Number of heavy rain days (R10mm). These indices were computed for both the historical (1979 - 2005) and  the projection periods (2030–2070) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show an increase in the extremes for the projection period with more severity under the RCP8.5 scenario. It can be deduced from the analysis that the projection periods are expected to have increased frequency of flash flood and drought occurrence. 

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print ISSN: 2006-7003