Effect of Non-Oil Exports on Economic Growth: Role of Government Policies

Abstract

This study investigated the effect of non-oil exports on Nigeria’s
economic growth, with a particular focus on the role of government
policies in enhancing export performance. Amid ongoing efforts to
diversify the Nigerian economy away from oil dependence, the
research disaggregates non-oil exports into three major sectors:
agricultural exports, manufactured exports, and solid mineral
exports. Using annual time series data from 2000 to 2023 and
applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the study
finds that agricultural and manufactured exports have a statistically
significant and positive impact on economic growth in both the short
and long run. While solid mineral exports also show a positive
contribution, their impact is relatively weaker. The findings further
reveal that government policies—such as export incentives, industrial
development programs, and regulatory frameworks—play a critical
role in facilitating non-oil export growth. The study concludes that
sustained government intervention, improved infrastructure, and
value-added production are essential for strengthening non-oil
exports and achieving long-term economic diversification in Nigeria.
One key recommendation is that the government should intensify
investment in rural and trade-related infrastructure to support
agricultural exports and improve market access.