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Mar 13, 2023Article Details
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Modelling and Forecasting of COVID-19 New Cases in the Top 10 Infected African Countries from February 14 to September 06, 2020
Abstract
Rationale of Study – COVID-19 is a novel coronavirus that has resulted in an outbreak of viral pneumonia around the world. The total case has reached 3,581,783 (shared 78.5%) with 102,201 (84.4%) total deaths and 3,214,512 (78.7%) recoveries in the top 10 infected African countries as of April 28, 2021 at 10:30 am. This study models and forecasts COVID-19 new cases in the top 10 infected African countries from February 14 to September 06, 2020.
Methodology – The COVID-19 new cases data was modelled and forecasted using curve estimation regression model and time series model from February 14 to September 6, 2020.
Findings – The cubic regression models for the data were relatively the best fit for Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa. The quadratic regression models for the data were the best fit for Cameroon, Cote dʹIvoire, and Ghana. The Algerian data was followed by the logarithmic regression model. In the time series analysis, the Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa COVID-19 new cases data have fitted the ARIMA (0,1,0), ARIMA (0,1,0), and ARIMA (0,1,14) models, respectively. The Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria data have fitted the simple exponential smoothing models. Ethiopia, Kenya, and Morocco data have followed the Damped trend, Holt, and Brown exponential smoothing models, respectively.
Implications – The findings of the study may be used for preparedness planning against further spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in African countries. The author recommends that as many countries continue to relax restrictions on movement and mass gatherings, and more are opening of their air spaces and other sectors, strong and appropriate public health and social measures must be instituted to prevent further spread of the virus.
Originality – The paper contributes a model which can be used to predict occurrence of new COVID-19 cases in top 10 infected African countries.
