Development of a multi-year climate prediction model

  • WJR Alexander


The available water resources in Southern Africa are rapidly approaching the limits of economic exploitation. The situation is compounded by claims that global warming will have a serious adverse effect on future water supplies. There was therefore an urgent need to characterise the numerical properties of the hydrometeorological processes in such a way that the effects of global warming, if any, could be evaluated and accommodated. Other than increases in both areal rainfall and open water surface evaporation, no other changes were detected, that could be attributed to climate change arising from human activities. Nor is there evidence to support the view that such changes are likely to occur within the normal planning horizon of the next 30 years. A climate prediction model was developed based on the statistically significant 21-year periodicity in the hydrometeorological processes, and its direct association with corresponding periodicity in solar activity.

Water SA Vol.31 (2) 2005: pp.209-218

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eISSN: 0378-4738