Prediction of prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Rwanda using the metropolis-hasting sampling

  • Angelique Dukunde
  • Jean Marie Ntaganda
  • Juma Kasozi
  • Joseph Nzabanita
Keywords: Non communicable diseases; type 2 diabetes; Markov Chain Monte Carlo method; Metropolis-Hasting method; Transition probabilities.

Abstract

In this work, we predict the prevalence of type 2 diabetes among adult Rwandan people. We used the Metropolis-Hasting method that involved calculating the metropolis ratio. The data are those reported by World Health Organiation in 2015. Considering Suffering from diabetes, Overweight, Obesity, Dead and other subject as states of mathematical model, the transition matrix whose elements are probabilities is generated using Metropolis-Hasting sampling. The numerical results show that the prevalence of type 2 diabetes increases from 2.8% in 2015 to reach 12.65% in 2020 and to 22.59% in 2025. Therefore, this indicates the urgent need of prevention by Rwandan health decision makers who have to play their crucial role in encouraging for example physical activity, regular checkups and sensitization of the masses.

Keywords: Non communicable diseases; type 2 diabetes; Markov Chain Monte Carlo method; Metropolis-Hasting method; Transition probabilities.rds: 

Published
2021-08-02
Section
Articles

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eISSN: 1680-6905