The contribution of nuclear and other low carbon electricity generation technologies towards Nigeria’s carbon neutrality journey

Abstract

The latest estimate of the United State Energy Information Administration (US-EIA) shows that Nigeria is the largest producer of oil in Africa with largest natural gas reserves on the continent and the fifth–largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the World. In 2017, Nigeria's generation capacity was 12,664 megawatts (MW), with 10,522 MW representing 83% from fossil fuels, 2,110 MW representing 17% from hydropower, and 32 MW accounting for 1% coming from solar, wind, biomass, and other sources. The fossil power plants constitutes the major driver in greenhouse gas emission, therefore reduction in its operation will reduce the rate of carbon emission. To achieve carbon neutrality in line with the Paris agreement of 2015, the need for nuclear and other low carbon emission renewable electricity generation technologies is vital. This study utilizes the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) code in modelling energy supply needs for Nigeria using various electricity generation technologies. By placing the upper limit on carbon emission constraints, discount rate of 11.5% and other electricity generation data obtained from EIA. Using the modelling period of forty-five (45) years with a base year of 2015 the results shows that the contribution of fossil is bound below the upper limit while that of hydro continue to increase from 2016 to the end of the modelling year. Contribution from nuclear power plant starts from 2029, and continue to increase throughout the modeling period which suppressing contribution from fossil below the upper limit of CO₂, The negligible contribution from solar and wind been suppressed by nuclear and hydro power plants. The results shows that nuclear and other low carbon energy technologies are the preeminent alternative for future electricity production in achieving carbon neutrality target.