Mathematical analysis of an impetigo model with isolation and media awareness campaign

Abstract

Impetigo (skin sore), is one of the most contagious infections of the skin in developed and underdeveloped nations of the world. Hence, there is every need to develop mathematical models that would provide useful insights into curtailing its further spread. In this work, an impetigo model incorporating isolation and media awareness campaign is developed and analyzed. Results from the
analysis of the model reveal that it exhibits forward bifurcation near the point, R₅ = 1. The forward bifurcation presence in the model points to the fact that having R_g < 1 is enough reason to guarantee the elimination of skin sore in the population no matter the initial sizes of the infected subpopulation. Sensitivity analysis was carried out and results from the analysis reveal that the effective contact rate (B), isolation rate (t) and the efficacy of media awareness campaign (e) are the most sensitive parameters. These parameters significantly drive the dynamics of skin sore in the population. Finally, numerical simulation results indicate that increasing the efficacy of media awareness campaign and its compliance led to the reduction in the reproduction number of the skin sore model.