Modeling Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Abstract

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was employed as a fundamental measure of economic performance and as a tool for policy formulation and management in developing economies. This study examined Nigeria’s GDP over the period 1960–2023 using a time-series econometric modeling framework. The objective was to identify the macroeconomic variables that significantly influenced GDP and to provide insights into its historical dynamics. Secondary data were obtained from the World Bank Development Indicators and the Central Bank of Nigeria. Unit root tests, cointegration techniques, and an error correction model were applied to assess both short-run and long-run relationships. The results showed that exchange rate, inflation, unemployment, population growth, and imports significantly affected GDP. Exchange rate volatility and inflation exerted negative effects, whereas population growth and imports contributed positively to output performance. The findings revealed the structural dynamics of Nigeria’s economy and underscored the importance of macroeconomic stability and sound policy interventions for sustainable growth.