Prediction of the potential invasion of <I>Lantana Camara </I>L. (Verbenaceae) an exotic plant species in Côte d'Ivoire from a modeling approach

Abstract

Invasive alien plant species represent a great threat to the integrity of ecosystems. Acquiring information on the dynamics of these species on a cartographic basis constitutes a tool for their sustainable management. Among these species, Lantana camara L., known for its environmental and agronomic impacts, is currently reported in several localities of Côte d'Ivoire. The general objective of this study is to model the ecological niche of this species over the entire country. To do so, 89 points occurrences and 19 current and future bioclimatic variables were collected to model the potential distribution of this species on the basis of the RCP 8.5 scenario as part of the HadGEM2-ES climate model. This is 75% of presence data (67 points) used for model calibration and 25% (22 points) for testing. At the end of the modeling carried out with the MaxEnt software, the areas suitable for the species are characterized by low temperatures and heavy rainfall., under current climatic conditions, approximately 65,782.40 km², or 20% of the national territory, is suitable for the invasion of L. camara. Azagny National Park, Banco National Park, and the Iles Nature Reserve Ehotiles have distributions with high probability of the presence of the species. By 2050, the climate projects high temperatures and low precipitation in the future. The results show that by adapting to this new climatic range, the L. camara proliferation area will increase to 78,036.05 km², or 24% of the national territory. An upward trend, with a rate of change of 18.6, has been observed in the favorable areas of this area. To maintain the normal functioning of ecosystems and the sustainability of ecosystem services, the areas that have been identified as the most vulnerable to the invasion of L. camara must be the subject of control strategies of this species.

Keywords: Lantana camara, Species modeling, MaxEnt, Côte d’Ivoire, RCP scenario 8.5.