Projected ecosystem service dynamics: A predictive model for assessing changes in ecosystem service values in Lagos coastal zones

Abstract

Global human activities are placing unprecedented pressures on ecosystems, particularly in vulnerable coastal areas, where the degradation of crucial ecosystem services threatens both environmental sustainability and the socio-economic security of local communities. This study aims to inform sustainable land use planning, coastal management strategies, and conservation policies to safeguard the long-term resilience of Lagos vulnerable coastal ecosystems. To achieve this, the research employs artificial neural networks and Landsat imagery spanning three decades (2003–2023), combined with the value transfer method, to project the future dynamics and economic implications of ecosystem services in Lagos' coastal zones by 2050. Findings reveal a significant overall decline in total ecosystem service value, amounting to $2,971.60 million, with a net loss of $835.34 million (₦65.84 billion). Wetlands experienced the most dramatic decline, losing $1,141.26 million (₦1.87 trillion), underscoring the heavy economic cost of environmental degradation. Conversely, freshwater swamps experienced the most significant gain, increasing by $499.66 million (₦817.29 billion), highlighting their growing role in sustaining ecosystem value. These Findings emphasize the critical economic importance of maintaining ecosystem services, as their degradation carries severe financial implications for livelihoods, biodiversity, and long-term coastal resilience. By providing a predictive framework, this research offers valuable insights for decision-makers and policymakers, enabling proactive strategies to mitigate further ecosystem losses. The approach can be adapted to other rapidly urbanizing coastal regions facing similar environmental and economic challenges.