Social-ecological Modelling of Fisheries Extension Workers’ Resilience to Climate Change in Calabar Agricultural Zone, Nigeria

Abstract

The study assessed social-ecological modelling of fisheries extension workers’ resilience to climate change in Calabar agricultural zone, Nigeria. A census approach was adopted, with all 164 registered extension workers included to eliminate sampling error. Data were collected using questionnaire, structured interview schedule and interview guide, and analyzed using means, frequencies, standard deviations, multiple regression, and thematic analysis. Results showed adaptive capacity scores ranged from 0.32 to 0.89 ( = 0.61). Institutional support (β = 0.32), access to climate information (β = 0.28), and training exposure (β = 0.20) were the strongest predictors of resilience. Simulation results indicated that government-led training investments increased system resilience from 0.52 to 0.72, while strong governance support, maintained service delivery efficiency above 0.72 even under high climate stress. These findings highlight extension workers as central actors whose skills, institutional linkages, and access to information drive resilience in fisheries systems. Strengthening training programs, institutional networks, and climate information services by government and development agencies will enhance adaptation among extension workers and fishing communities, providing a foundation for national fisheries policy under climate change.