Sensitivity analysis of semi-intensive method of swine production:a case study of anguwar-gwari area of Kaduna north local government area of Kaduna state.
The present animal protein intake level in Nigeria can be improved by increased livestock production in quantity and quality. This can be achieved through adoption of improved production practices and the rearing of high yielding species of livestock. This work therefore sought to determine the sensitivity of swine production under semi-intensive technique in response to increased cost of production and a decline in the price of swine. Data were collected by means of structured questionnaire administered on twenty-one farms practicing semi-intensive technique of swine production with the aid of cluster sampling technique. Data collected was subjected to various measures of return on investment viz: Gross Margin, Benefit-Cost Ratio, Net Present Value, and Internal Rate of Return. Results show that in the first year gross margin was N833, 850.00, Net profit, N449,350.00, Rate of Return 69.5% while BCR of 2.85, NPV N3,879,697.64 at 25% and IRR 55.25% were recorded for a five year estimated cash flow. Result of sensitivity test on increased cost of production 30% and fall in price 30% showed that BCR of 2.19 and 1.99, NPV N3,194,160.60 and N2,030,020.15, IRR, 35.57% and 46.91% were recorded respectively. These are indicators that even with the assumption of increased cost or declined price of output, swine production using semiintensive technique is a profitable venture in the study area. It is therefore recommended that semiintensive technique of swine production be encouraged to enhance animal protein production of higher quantity and quality.
Key words: Sensitivity analysis, semi intensive, swine