Economic analysis of the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Nigeria

Abstract

The climate fluctuation in Nigeria poses a serious threat on Nigeria’s Agricultural Productivity level, this study examined the length of relationship which exists from 1970 to 2014. The study made use of secondary data. Descriptive and Error Correction Model were employed in the analysis of the data. The results revealed that there has been an upward trend in Agricultural output over the years, and that the past level of changes in agricultural output has positive and significant effects on the present level of its economic performance. Also, a change in the temperature overtime has negative effects on the level of agricultural output but was found to be insignificant at 5%. Furthermore, the previous change in rainfall exhibits positive relationship with agricultural output which is 30%, and this implies that a 0.30 increase change in rainfall will likely result into a unit increase change in agricultural output and vice versa. Past level of changes in agricultural expenditure has positive and significant effects on the level of agricultural output. A proportional rise in past level of labour increases current agricultural output and found to be significant at 5%. The study concluded that climate change has effect on agricultural output, while the effect of temperature is neutral, that of rainfall is positive and significant.

Keywords: Economic analysis, climate change, agricultural productivity, temperature, government expenditure