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Journal of Research in National Development

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A Monte Carlo approach to combating delayed completion of development projects

JO Bioku

Abstract


The objective of this paper is to unveil the relevance of Monte Carlo critical path analysis in resolving problem of delays in scheduled completion of development projects. Commencing with deterministic network scheduling, Monte Carlo critical path analysis was advanced by assigning probability distributions to task times. Applying the Monte Carlo critical path analysis model to a 3-bedroom bungalow project, results indicate broad alternatives for early completion times which can be optimized within tolerable profile of risk and uncertainty in tasks durations. By assisting project planners to exercise time- and resource management skills throughout the project life cycle, Monte Carlo critical path analysis is adjudged a vital risk assessment and monitoring tool for combating delays in completion of development projects.



http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/jorind.v8i2.66842
AJOL African Journals Online