Estimating R_o of The COVID-19 Virus Outbreak in Malawi: Opportunities and Challenges

Abstract

COVID-19 remains a global concern such that social distancing, wearing of face masks and hand washing remain key prevention measures. Additionally, various types of vaccines have been developed and put to use. On the other hand, epidemiologists continue to monitor published COVID-19 data to analyse the dynamics of the disease including estimation of the reproduction number ( R_o). However, lack of continuous authenticated data defines a daunting task of estimating  R_o both locally and globally. This paper aimed at assessing the scope of COVID-19 in Malawi and extent of estimating R_o , existing challenges and opportunities. The assessment showed that for the past one year, COVID-19 data showed some cyclic pattern with a probable occurrence of third wave. But no traceable reasons of curve flattening were clearly met. In addition, we observed missing of some data which present an obstacle to the process of deriving various disease parameters including R_o .Nevertheless, based on the available dataset, a preliminary estimate of R_o=1.05 was obtained using method of generation interval. Thus, more effort should be spent on gathering and publishing clean and continuous data. Nonetheless, the available COVID-19 data, openly published by relevant authorities, sets a benchmark for possible estimation of R_o in Malawi.

Keywords: COVID-19, Data, Reproduction number, Challenges, Opportunities, Malawi.