SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ON FLEXIBLE ROAD PAVEMENT LIFE CYCLE COST MODEL
Sensitivity analysis is a tool used in the assessment of a model’s performance. This study examined the application of sensitivity analysis on a developed flexible pavement life cycle cost model using varying discount rate. The study area is Effurun, Uvwie Local Government Area of Delta State of Nigeria. In order to determine one of the vital geotechnical engineering properties (i.e. California Bearing Ratio) of the soil samples required for this study, soil samples were taken from the subgrade of the study area using the disturbed sampling method. The laboratory test was carried out at geotechnical laboratory in Warri and in accordance with AASTHO 1993 to determine the subgrade strength. Existing data such as maintenance records, vehicular traffic counts, material costs, discount rate and pavement design data were sourced from the Delta State Ministry of Works, Effurun. These acquired data and CBR results of 5% and 6% were used for the design of three competing flexible pavement systems and Bill of Engineering Measurements obtained. These were used for the evaluation of the Life-Cycle Costs (LCCs) using present worth cost (PWC) method; varying discount rates in MS Excel spread sheets for a design life of 20 years. Regression modeling of the three scenarios was done with sensitivity analysis carried out on the developed model. The project age was used as its independent variable, while discount rate is a secondary independent variable varied by ±4%, ±8% and ±12% of the initial discount rate of 5.4% applied with the accuracy of 95%. The coefficient of determination (R2) for the Hot Rolled Asphalt (HRA), Interlocking Concrete Pavement Block (ICPB) and Do-nothing models are 0.97, 0.95 and 0.99 respectively indicating a robustness of the developed models. The graphs produced from the sensitivity analysis indicate a decrease in life cycle cost with increasing interest rate for the alternatives. These results are vital for the economic evaluation of flexible pavement and transportation systems.