Nigerian Journal of Technology

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Reliability assessment of Thomas Fiering's method of stream flow prediction

M. I. Alfa, M. A. Ajibike, D. B. Adie


This study was carried out to assess the reliability of Thomas-Fiering’s method of stream flow prediction. The 19 years gauged data of 1955-1973 was extended to 2016 using the model. Model calibration was done by multiple linear regressions of the gauged and synthetic data of 1956-1973. The linear equations developed for January to December were used for adjustment of the three sets of stream flow data generated for 1974-2016. The reliability assessment was done based on the extent to which the unbiased statistics (mean, standard deviation and correlation coefficients) of the 1955-1973 stream flow data were preserved in the synthetic stream flow for 1955-2016. The comparison was done using linear regression and One-Way ANOVA (95% Confidence level) to check for the reliability of the generated data. The coefficients of determination, P-values, F-values and critical F-values were used to estimate the reliability index. Synthetic data was found to be 95.9% reliable.

Keywords: Ofu River, Reliability, Stream flow, Synthetic, Thomas Fiering’s model
AJOL African Journals Online